Pandora's Box 2018 Feedback Thread

Discussion in 'The Acropolis' started by Baudin Toolan, Jul 24, 2018.

  1. Rachel.L

    Rachel.L Phrourach

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2016
    last year there were issues with the event as well
    perhaps a reread of past posts:
    https://en.forum.grepolis.com/index.php?threads/pandoras-box.59975/

    i think several of you are pointing out the same inconsistencies with numbers, just from different points of view
    if you would step back, not take the questions personally, i think you'd see there is agreement and good discussion in the math posed
     
  2. Idontnow

    Idontnow Phrourach

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2012
    I feel like you are both going at it from different perpectives.

    One point of view is the overall mathematical one with actual probabilities, and the other is the individual interest.

    I feel like mojo is trying to say that it would not be in your interest to try 100 times on a 1% chance than 2 times on a 50% chance

    Intuitively this seems correct because 1% will rarely happen and 50% does... and the maths behind it agree
    In the first case you have 0.99^100 =0.36... so 36% chance of never getting it and in the later case it’s 0.25 so 25% chance of never succeeding

    Anyways, there is math and perception of humans and it’s different
     
    Rachel.L likes this.
  3. Tusc2010

    Tusc2010 Phrourach

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2012
    Had it simply been a case of different perspectives, I would not have disagreed with it. But first, he repeatedly said ONE time on a 50% chance versus the 100 times on a 1% chance. He never said two times. He called me an idiot, suggested I would be easy money at a poker game, and made an absolute fool of himself.

    There are perspectives and debates to be had, and then there is math. With debates, there can be opinions. For example, he could have argued that it's still possible that I am just getting very unlucky this event. He would have been correct...I would happily have given his post a like and moved on. But no, he instead tried to use a mathematical proof that simply wasn't correct at any point throughout. In math there is a correct answer and an incorrect answer.

    This is not some difference of opinion, it is simply an incorrect mathematical statement (as I explain two ways above). :)
     
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  4. Raydium88

    Raydium88 Chiliarch

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2017
    I think the duration of the event is just not enough to complete it. And whoever said the event is not meant to be attainable doesn't realize that implies false advertisement. For all the rewards should be achievable, otherwise is misleading players into buying gold. We are not just players... we are also customers.

    Needs at least 3-4 more days for a chance of anyone reaching box 40.
     
  5. Meltrix

    Meltrix Phrourach

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    There is no remotely reasonable (or even possible?) way to close more than 2 boxes per day past the first few rounds, so yes, not achievable. I've been working my butt off, using every hint and advantage, and spending stupid (but not insane) amounts of gold on this, and 6 days out I'll be lucky if I get to level 36. If no-one does it across all the worlds it shouldn't even be a goal.
     
  6. mojosrisin

    mojosrisin Phrourach

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2012
    Apparently you were reading too deeply. Clearly I didn't take the time to do the math, apologies. I should have used less than 100 attempts in my example but off the top of my head it sounded like a good number that I wouldn't have to double check. So if I'd said 60 attempts at 1/100 it would have worked. Whatever I didn't double check.

    Aaaanyway. That whole thing is irrelevant anyway. I was just using it as an example of why you can't just use a simple average to determine your true chance of success over a series of attempts especially with varying chances of success per attempt. I failed because I didn't bother to check my example. (this is me shrugging)

    So when you just averaged out your chances of success across 200+ attempts with varying odds the number you came up with wasn't really a reliable estimate.

    Just like I didn't do the math with my own example I'm not gonna do it with your data either. Point remains the same.

    @baudin - we're not even mad dude. is okay.
     
  7. dadofwildthang

    dadofwildthang Phrourach

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2012
    level 20 hyperborea troop levels
    seems like alot to go forward with
    no gold... got all reinforcements from daily rewards
    are others in the same ball park for troop numbers?
    **What WORTHY Commander would send their troops on a mission with those odds of success??/
    Its a war game, should not be an endurance test of futility to achieve nothing of value. Where is the Battle, tactics and worthwhile Objectives to take
    https://screenshots.firefox.com/a5Zd0JSUGe6RQkq9/en45.grepolis.com
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2018
    Moppettte likes this.
  8. Tusc2010

    Tusc2010 Phrourach

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2012
    This event is drawing to a close, and as usual, no response from inno. :( This is becoming a bit of a regular occurrence...
    1) Inno screws something up, often costing players valuable time AND MONEY
    2) Players realize and complain about it
    3) "Inno will be asked"
    4) No follow through
    5) Players eventually move on, having been scammed out of time and money.

    And the whole process repeats with the next error.
     
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  9. Baudin Toolan

    Baudin Toolan Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    The answer I got from Inno was that the percentages are correct and that looking at data gathered from 200-300 attempts from a couple of players doesn't accurately reflect the percentages. You'd need closer to 1000 attempts from most of the server to get a clear picture.

    The difficulty of reaching box 40 is also intended and doable given you are highly active and use the best troop selection for each attempt for the whole event.
     
    dianices likes this.
  10. MythicalPoodle

    MythicalPoodle Taxiarch

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2018
    even with unlocking boxes with gold thus not wasting time i would be sceptical about reaching box 40.
     
  11. Meltrix

    Meltrix Phrourach

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    I suppose with the current troop boost, if I spent constant gold to reduce mission times and I were at the keyboard all day I might be able to squeeze in 3 boxes a day, which is what I would have to do to reach 40 at this point. Will be interesting to see how many people across the servers actually achieve this.
     
  12. Raydium88

    Raydium88 Chiliarch

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2017
    I might have jumped the gun too early for which I must apologize in regards to some of my previous posts.

    Box 40 is "attainable", although you wouldn't want to know, or even put up with what you have to do. Let's just say, spaced out nap sleep routines, free-time, some gold and a TON of coffee... But bloody hell I am stubborn... [​IMG]
     
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  13. Rachel.L

    Rachel.L Phrourach

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2016
    yeah, but after all that, ray, whatever is in box 40 better be close to rainbow unicorns
     
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  14. MythicalPoodle

    MythicalPoodle Taxiarch

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2018

    pls screen shoot those extra rewards and post it here if you close box 40
     
  15. ajayspocket

    ajayspocket Hipparchus

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2015

    Been using the best troop % . 8 times this morning - didnt catch a single ghost . Its a 50% chance - so ideally i should get a ghost every 2 attempts , in worse case 4/5 .

    Something is wrong, people are not complaining without a reason.
     
  16. MythicalPoodle

    MythicalPoodle Taxiarch

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2018
    i agree on 40% i caught a ghost on 8th attempt
     
  17. dianices

    dianices Hekatontarch

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2016
    nothing to add, just enjoying the thread, carry on [​IMG]
     
  18. mojosrisin

    mojosrisin Phrourach

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2012
    6th attempt on box 36, 1 success so far. 30-38% chance of success per mission. I'm not sending max troops most of the time. I screwed up and sent the wrong troops once and only had a 9% chance.

    The box before this one I had much greater success and closed it after maybe 15 attempts again not sending max troops per attempt.

    The people suffering the worst luck are the most likely to post. People who are succeeding more often than not aren't motivated to come onto the externals and post about their luck compared to the frustrated folk who are failing more often.

    It's highly highly unlikely that there's some major conspiracy behind our success rates.
     
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  19. Tusc2010

    Tusc2010 Phrourach

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2012
    I refuse to explain the math to you a 4th time.
     
  20. mojosrisin

    mojosrisin Phrourach

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2012
    I can't find a gif of someone rolling their eyes hard enough.Yeah you beat me with that one example as I admitted in a previous post because I didn't actually do the math and was just spit balling numbers that sounded like they'd work. You caught me on the fact check. Whateves.

    It's still probability Tusc. Your results are not impossible.

    Someone was gonna get the short end of the luck stick.

    It's our bad luck that the guy who got it is so skilled at crying.
     
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