Just gonna throw this in here, because there's been a lot of action the last few days, and the last one is pretty outdated. Enjoy!
1) Hug This – Despite all the crap that literally every other alliance throws at them, they've got a lot of my respect. Granted, most of that respect stems from an underlying fear of the inevitable wave of soldiers and boats that I'll have little hope of surviving. They work really well as team, and they've got this server under lockdown. (Only way I can see them going down is if the rest of the server puts aside petty differences and teams up against them. Server vs. Hugs would be an effective "test" to "prove" themselves, as everyone seems to think they haven't. Too bad this whole forum is full of players who wouldn't trust each other as far as an archer can beat a swordsman.)
Swim
2) True Fear – Sufffered a blow from HT yesterday, and it seems other than that, they haven't taken on any major alliances in a while. Their core is compact, and if they can coordinate well enough, they might be able to hold out against HT. Socially, it seems that no one on the outside is a fan of James, and I'm curious to know if that's what it's like inside the alliance as well.
Swim if they can coordinate their defense.
3) NONAME – Seems like they've been growing without any resistance the past few weeks. Most major alliances haven't been able to get by without a love tap from HT, and NN is no exception. A couple of inactives at the bottom of their members list, but nothing else major I can find at fault with this alliance.
Swim
4) Direwolves of Winterfell – Highest scoring rim alliance right now, and another alliance that hasn't had much resistance growing. They're very spread out though, and I'm having trouble trying to discern where their core is (or would be after some more development). The majority of their players are bordering HT, and I can see a single OP wiping them off the top 12 list.
Sink
5) Mercenaries – They've grown pretty fast, but again, they're spread out. A positive difference between DW and Mercs is that the Mercs have a relatively dense core, with a few tendrils of cities spreading out. Not sure what diplomacy is like between them and the alliances around them, but those cities are low hanging fruit for sure if the relations aren't good.
Float
6) Order and Chaos – VERY spread out across several oceans. They do have lots of allies at the bottom of 45, including their sister alliance Alpha Centauri, and it looks like that could be considered their core. If one of the bigger alliances wanted to try for the pockets of cities North-east 44 and North-east 45, the travel time would leave little support from the majority of the alliance. Still a strong contender in their sphere.
Swim for their core at the bottom of O45
7) Infernal Abyss – Technically my alliance, so I won't comment (Even though I've got a whole host of great things to say about it)
8) Nightmares of Elysium – Just got a huge spike of points and players, which suggests a merge. I'm not current enough with that side of the server to know who it would have been with. Uncontested growth mixed with a pretty solid core halfway towards the rim. Definitely a contender for being around at endgame.
Float
9) Inf1nite Army – I'll cover both the armies in one, because I'm already getting lazy in my writing. The most spread out of all the alliances so far. The main alliance has a solid core, but half of the alliance is so far out that If I were threatened by them, I would not feel like I was in any danger. Their sister alliance is spread out on the rim, but I would not be confident in saying that O65 is under their control.
Sink
10) Alpha Centauri – Sister alliance to Order and Chaos. Uncontested, beginnings of a solid compact core, and with the backing of their main alliance. Not seeing this one going down any time soon.
Swim
11) Pheonix Blade – Mixed in the middle or Order and Chaos, and from what I know relations are good with everyone down at the bottom of 35 and 45. Also not seeing this one going down any time soon, unless Order and Chaos gets hungry, and in the need for some easy close food.
Float
12) Infin1te Army – See Number 9
I wish I had a bit more knowledge about the east side of the map, but I've only ever kept up with the west side where I'm at. Most of these are analysis' of maps, points, wars, and trends
Edit: Added Sink/Float/Swim