Well, first attempt at a top 12 ever, so here goes…
1. Show me your Noobies- Swim. Nice core on the 44/54 border, good players with experience and deep pockets, much will depend on which ocean they decide to base their growth and direction in. Careful recruiting policies by these folks- always a good play, world to world. The questions- to build, or not to build WW? Ocean 44 or ocean 54? Lots of crowns under belts, but more important- good fire power and good leadership with classy communication. Chances are players in this alliance will want a fight that is worthy of their capabilities...or they will have the ability to define what alliance wins the server depending on which way they decide to go.
2. Caustic Soda (my alliance)- Swim. NOT a traditional group, and not a group that landed as a premade as they are collectively NOW, like 1, 3, 5, and 8 did. Experienced players, group still warming up to one another, with a strong 44 core. It’s not egos that will define whether the leadership can work together as noted before- it’s whether they have the time to get comfortable with one another under the same roof before the proverbial "stuff" really hits the fan in O44.
3. Enough is Enough (#3 and #16 rankings)- Probable swim. Since clearing up their drama issues (pun intended), they look to be trying to become less of an MRA and more of a serious alliance. Suspected leaders here aren’t your typical cuddly fuzzy bunnies…look for them to stabilize and push to secure 55, and not make a lot of pacts or NAPs to get there, depending on who is really in charge in this group.
4. Devil’s Advocates- Float, for a while. Smart move, changing your name to where you can’t be mapped by others or enemies, but you can’t map yourselves either. As the former alliance Undecided, good strong core development – bad strategic location, with no obvious expansion route other that N, E, or W. Blocked to the South by EE, and rumor has it that they have a “rimming” to settle with a certain devious leader in 55. Time will tell. Susceptible to cuddling offers- purely due to location, obviously not otherwise...because EK doesn't cuddle, right?
5. PIED- Float… for now. Very interested in talking to other alliances, it seems. Would recommend focusing on defining a core in 45 if they are to be serious contenders long haul. Subject to merger for survival, or being used by other alliances for “projects” through pact offers.
6. Backdoor Bandits (the other half of 150)- Swim. Academy? Would you call your brother or sister a lesser person than yourself? I don’t. Nice core, fought a few battles, more to come. Have some members that will need to pick up the pace from a growth perspective, but they’ve made some tough decisions recently and come through it smashingly.
7. Hydra (version 1 at #7, version 2 at # 13) – looking for floaties and someone to blow in them (EK…continue to give them hope). Largest challenge- 2 cores, 1 on the 45/55 border, 1 in 54, and 2 major alliances between them. That geography never works well without very strong management. Saw it kill the #1 alliance in Kasmenai, and other worlds over. 45 location says that they will feel the squeeze as well, if other alliances in 45 and 54 make smart decisions for themselves instead of worrying about enemies oceans away. If those alliances do that...Hydra sinks.
8. Written in Blood- Swim. Good leadership, lots of good karma with this group, they work well together, fought against and with them. One thing that they do better than most- less internal drama, less internal egos, good at being there for each other and following Ruthie’s direction. Rim access, so they should not feel the need to pact up this world perhaps.
9. Checkmate- Swim, for now. Nice core development. Early on there were accusations floating of duplicity in players from this alliance and DA (#4). I will go out on a limb and say that those are hopefully untrue. Alliance has a few spenders, and if they follow the map, they’ll take out Hydra in 54 and move NE as an independent alliance. Time will tell.
10. Simple- Swim. Fast growth, good core, and recognizable names. I doubt that they hold the #10 spot for very long. Access to the rim, which is always an added bonus.
EDIT- someone pointed out that I stopped at 10. I stopped when I ran out of wine and fingers. So...
11. Symmetry- likely Sink. Why? Location on the board, core development work, and both ABP/DBP stats to date. This alliance looks to be trying to make Ocean 54 home-alongside 4 other alliances of similar size. They have several outlaying members who haven't colonized yet, but have tasty cities the 4-5K size, likely to be eyed by neighboring alliances. ABP/DBP to date indicate that they have been negotiating quietly with other alliances within their own ocean and haven't picked a direction yet. Closet cuddlers, perhaps? To get anywhere other than sink- better send those colony ships to a backup plan.
12. Winter Wolves- Swimming in the short race momentarily. Alliance has a location that gives them exposure to the rim and path to get there. How long they last will depend on whether they realize it or not. In they choose to tangle with Noobs, the short race gets shorter and they sink...unless they "partner up". Should be interesting to see which play they choose.
AND...just to humor Ranga...
#61- WARGASM- group of talented players, simming it out in 54 for gold and to see if they want to stay or go...or, in Ranga's personal case, what appears to be a chip on his shoulder and a personal vendetta from worlds long ago. I would not judge the caliber of his teammates by his choices. Some of these guys have been the deadliest on servers- WHEN THEY CHOOSE TO PLAY. You can't get a sink or a swim when you are not even playing the game.
