LUCK....Is it really random

[DeletedUser2795]

maybe the luck factor is something to with with points?

No, that would be morale. I expect that you were just unlucky.

 

[DeletedUser]

I believe Farg (I think it was him) did a study on this exact topic on Pi (My facts might be wrong ) He saved up all his alliances reports for 3 months, and calculated that in fact the average amount of luck is something like -8% or something.

 

[DeletedUser2795]

I believe Farg (I think it was him) did a study on this exact topic on Pi (My facts might be wrong ) He saved up all his alliances reports for 3 months, and calculated that in fact the average amount of luck is something like -8% or something.

I'd like to actually see that study.

 

[DeletedUser]

PM him

 

[DeletedUser]

I believe Farg (I think it was him) did a study on this exact topic on Pi (My facts might be wrong )

Your facts are correct sir. There were also other interesting results, such as a significant increase in luck when hitting empty cities and a significant decrease in luck when attacking an inferior opponent. I'm talking a HUGE difference in the "random". However, when I discussed my findings with the powers that be, my results were dismissed as any block of samples could be that rare period where samples are skewed. Unless I actually see the code, I cannot confirm one way or the other, however I have always felt there were some "consistent" inconsistencies in the purported random luck claims.

Boils down to opinion and without access to the code, that is all it will ever be.

 

[DeletedUser2795]

Your facts are correct sir. There were also other interesting results, such as a significant increase in luck when hitting empty cities and a significant decrease in luck when attacking an inferior opponent. I'm talking a HUGE difference in the "random". However, when I discussed my findings with the powers that be, my results were dismissed as any block of samples could be that rare period where samples are skewed. Unless I actually see the code, I cannot confirm one way or the other, however I have always felt there were some "consistent" inconsistencies in the purported random luck claims.

Boils down to opinion and without access to the code, that is all it will ever be.

How big was your sample size? It sounds like I agree with your assessment, but I just wanted to check about the sample size.

 

[DeletedUser]

It was three months of posted, collected and entered reports from the alliance. Now I freely admit that some players certainly didn't submit every single report, and that would lead one to believe the sample was skewed. However, my personal reports, which I documented every single one, were only marginally different in regards to empty cities and inferior opponents. For overall luck, Jono was almost on the mark, my personal overall luck was a net -7%. As for the exact number of reports, I can no longer provide exact numbers, as I replaced the computer with that data on it. All I have remaining are some summaries from the study.

I can say that the collection of reports was from the #1 alliance on Pi at the time and the group was very battle active. I also remember being really burnt out on entering data towards the end.

 

[DeletedUser]

Your facts are correct sir. There were also other interesting results, such as a significant increase in luck when hitting empty cities and a significant decrease in luck when attacking an inferior opponent. I'm talking a HUGE difference in the "random". However, when I discussed my findings with the powers that be, my results were dismissed as any block of samples could be that rare period where samples are skewed. Unless I actually see the code, I cannot confirm one way or the other, however I have always felt there were some "consistent" inconsistencies in the purported random luck claims.

Boils down to opinion and without access to the code, that is all it will ever be.

It doesn't appear to be as much about luck as it about strength. I would like to hear more.

Strange and slightly ridiculous question, but do you know if the luck was the same on each side of the battle?

 

[DeletedUser2795]

It doesn't appear to be as much about luck as it about strength. I would like to hear more.

Strange and slightly ridiculous question, but do you know if the luck was the same on each side of the battle?

What do you mean by "strength"?
As for the luck being the same, it should be, unless there was a bug.

 

[DeletedUser27700]

Luck is only calculated for the attack, so a +25% for the attacker will always be -25% for the defender etc.

 

[DeletedUser]

What do you mean by "strength"?
As for the luck being the same, it should be, unless there was a bug.

First, by strength I'm referring to the superior strength of the attacking or defending army. Example: Empty city - more luck.

Second, the luck could be different on each side. For example, let's say I attack someone and my luck is 7% but my opponents luck is 1%.

Edit: Ah okay Iced. I hope you see where I was going though..

 

[DeletedUser2795]

First, by strength I'm referring to the superior strength of the attacking or defending army. Example: Empty city - more luck.

There is no definitive decision on this. The most probable thing is that there is simply a fluke in the random number generator.

Second, the luck could be different on each side. For example, let's say I attack someone and my luck is 7% but my opponents luck is 1%.

No, it couldn't, because then a different side might've won for either attacker or defender.

 

[DeletedUser]

So, a better breakdown would be to only monitor attacking or defending reports and not mix them.... If it is mainly -7% to the attacker, it will be +7% to the defender, which is yet another bonus to defenders (not proven though remember)

If you mix defensive and offensive reports, it can and will skew results.

 

[DeletedUser]

No, it couldn't, because then a different side might've won for either attacker or defender.

I disagree. Example: No luck. I attack with 1000 slingers and kill the enemies 100 swords and 100 archers while losing 300 slings (I have no idea but go along) Now luck is thrown in. I have 7% luck and the opponent has 1%. Same thing 1000 slings vs 100 swords and archers. But this time instead of 300 slings dying, 320 slings die due to the 1% luck.

I see the flaw with this idea but...

 

[DeletedUser2795]

So, a better breakdown would be to only monitor attacking or defending reports and not mix them.... If it is mainly -7% to the attacker, it will be +7% to the defender, which is yet another bonus to defenders (not proven though remember)

If you mix defensive and offensive reports, it can and will skew results.

You misunderstand the way luck works; if you take the reports from either side in a battle, they will each display the same number. The attacker's report might say -7 and then defender's report would say -7 as well. As such, defensive reports will not skew the results at all.

@Shadis: What? Where did the 7% go?

 

[DeletedUser]

I understand how it works... I just had one of those ideas where you know it's flawed but seems.....eh I don't know. Continue please with the discussion.

Also I was wondering if anyone else would be willing to conduct some more research on luck.

 

[DeletedUser2795]

I understand how it works... I just had one of those ideas where you know it's flawed but seems.....eh I don't know. Continue please with the discussion.

Also I was wondering if anyone else would be willing to conduct some more research on luck.

I suppose you could make up a system where each side got a random bonus, similar to how both sides can have something such as Phalanx or Captain. However, that would be functionally equivalent to the current luck system.
As for research, it sounds like it has been done, and the only good way to continue to investigate is to actually have access to the source code itself.

 

[DeletedUser]

I suppose but Farg said he did not have much of the research left, hence I believe more could be conducted, if just for curiosity.

 

[DeletedUser]

speaking of that, perhaps there could be a research in the academy that costs a boat load of resources to make the anti timer less... harsh

 

[DeletedUser]

speaking of that, perhaps there could be a research in the academy that costs a boat load of resources to make the anti timer less... harsh

Why? How? Changes in the wind, the current, storms, can all affect travel time, and it makes well timed attacks that much harder to break.