1) Bedtime Squad - Good premade group, focused in ocean 54. Their position will depends purely on which way they expand. If they stay in 54, they will be facing Just For Laughs. They can go either into 44 where the MRA's live or south into more soft targets, or they can push 54 and play with fire. Diplomacy will make or break this alliance, their decision of whom to fight come the end of BP will decide fully whether they swim or sink. For that reason, it will be a float decision for now. Many would give this group a swim, however they have the hardest ocean to deal with in my opinion. Also have used the most gold of any group so far, so that will keep them going for a bit with deeper pockets. Swim/Float
2) Here To Hug - O55 group, and I see some quality players mixed in with some bad ones. O55 is one of the most up in the air oceans, had multiple alliances splitting it, so expect to see the main action happening here. One alliance between the O55 group will come out on top, and simply because this group has a few more players I know are good, I would give them the ocean over the others. For that reason, ill call it a swim. Swim
3) Phobia - One of the worst groups of this list, started as a massive MRA which already shows how its players are not good. If you join / support and MRA like that, then it shows weak minded players/diplomats. I see this alliance going nowhere, based in... I don't know, I think O44. They are spread between all 4 major oceans, with no real center of control. They will be pulled apart by other groups of elite players due to their weak links, and will be pushed out no more than a month into the world. Defiant sink to me. Sink
4) Skulls - O45 Based, on the border of 55. I see very few memorable names in the group. I feel this is just an average group who will float for a bit then sink. Not much else to say about them, Float/Sink
5) The Iron Alliance - Another O45 group, I see little faith here. They have the lowest average score in the top 5, and outside of a few players I recall from Imbros, they have little experience together. They will likely end up merging into a group like Skulls to make 1 decent alliance, or falling to pressure from an alliance later on. Good news is they have a nice core, even though I'm sure it will be soft to enter, its better than nothing. Also they can push into O44 since the MRA is there, Float
6) Just For Laughs - My group, will not share a bias opinion. Located in O54. Neutral
7) Bad With Names - Yet another O45 group, probably the only one I see coming out of this ocean ahead. It will likely turn into a BWN vs Skulls / Iron war to decide it, of which I still see BWN coming out ahead. Best core of skilled players in 45, see no reason they wont roll over the others. Have a core set up as well, and with no real competition, this will be a swim. Swim
8) One Empire - Well, bad alliance is all I see here. O55 Based, I see next to no players of any skill, no text on their profile, only going to assume no solid leadership, just a mess of a group. They look like they will be easily ran over by anyone who wants to take free cities. Also the lowest average points of the top 8, I see no real potential here. Sink
9) Bear-Pandas - No idea on this one, I see a few revolt players but I don't recognize any memorable conquest players. On top of that, they have the lowest average points of the entire top 12, and are located in O55. Looks like a group of gold traders only playing with half heart, will assume they are not playing for competition. Sink
10) Phobia II - See above, same story, bad MRA. Sink
11) Cosa Nostra - I have 11 of these people on my island, no idea what they are or where they are trying to locate. I think its O54, if that is the case they need to move. The two best alliances in my opinion are already in 54, and these guys look like a group just looking to float along during BP. One or two good players, but too scattered around the world and unfortunately are stuck in 54. No diplomacy coming out either (unless they just don't like me), I see them sinking quickly. Sink
12) Venom - Do not see this group going far. O45 / 55 group, I think? They share waters with many others on the list, and don't see much talent here. I do not like their chances, I feel the #2 group above will run them out of town, but who knows. For now I see this as a sink.
Sink
These are my personal opinions, and do not reflect the opinion of my alliance members or my alliance as a whole. Just my views on the top 12, 4 days in.
C
JFL Family