Proof that Pandora's Box is a Lie

[DeletedUser31931]

Hello folks. I have been dreading posting this for a few days now, hoping that I was just having bad luck, going through a major slump. However, I have recently finished box 22 and I can no longer deny the obvious. The Pandora's Box event is a sham. I sincerely hope this is some massive bug that was somehow overlooked, because if not it would mean that Innogames is blatantly lying to us players. The chances of success that we supposedly have when opening a spirit box simply are not true.

On the beta server, nobody seemed to be getting the level of success they should have been. We compared some numbers, started tracking it a bit, and sure enough, every single person was getting "unlucky". Therefore, we decided that I would preform a real test on the regular servers. For every mission I attempted, I recorded the total chance number and then whether or not it resulted in success. My data is below, and leaves little question as to the validity of these lies Inno are feeding us.

Spoiler: Data 1

Spoiler: Data 2

Spoiler: Data 3

Spoiler: Data 4

As the pictures show, my success rate was supposed to be over 65%. Instead, I was successful just 50% of the time. That is, over 298 trials, 15 whole points below what Inno claims I should be at. This is almost mathematically impossible. Others who started tracking partway through are receiving similar results.

I would not be surprised if this post is deleted and/or I receive a forum ban for posting it. I just hope enough people see this before it's covered up.

 

[DeletedUser55887]

ik this is my first post on the en forums, so maybe this doesnt count for a lot, but I also play on zz2 with tusc and pandora hated me too lol. so i came here to count whats right and whats wrong, tho i use google sheets instead of excell lol.

Im on box 24 and my percent is supposed to be 63% but instead its been 43%, even worse then tusc's. i think we deserve a response here. @Baudin Toolan @Richard

 

[DeletedUser31931]

It's been a while since I've done statistics, but if someone wants to run a quick Chi Squared test on this, I can't imagine there is even a 1% chance of replicating my data if Inno is actually being honest with us about the chances of success. Plus, that doesn't even account for the fact that everyone seems to be getting worse results than we are supposed to.

i think we deserve a response here. @Baudin Toolan @Richard

I agree completely.

 

[DeletedUser55806]

iv got 96%'s not working and then 56%'s working lol this event is complete trash also GOLD TROOPS, GOLD TO FINISH THE BATTLE, its just who can use the most gold for goodness sake

 

[DeletedUser31931]

iv got 96%'s not working and then 56%'s working lol this event is complete trash also GOLD TROOPS, GOLD TO FINISH THE BATTLE, its just who can use the most gold for goodness sake

Wait, that's the one thing this event isn't...Using gold in this event does not help at all really. You can spend almost 2000 gold every day on this event (over 40,000 total) and it will result in only 6 speed-ups because of the increasing cost. That hardly makes a dent at all. Buying troops is virtually useless after the first few days of the event. Here on box 30 the unit cap is 545 troops, so the 100 units you can buy is beyond useless. Of course it's still a slight advantage to those willing to cut mission times a bit or skip the 5hour cooldowns, but compared to most events that is almost nothing.

The issue here is that Innogames, and I have to assume deliberately, is frustrating players by programming in lower success rates than they are advertising, with the result of increased revenues from players buying gold to make up for their "bad luck."

I'm not a lawyer, and I dislike how easily companies can be sued in today's world, but I tend to believe that falsely advertising a product with the direct result of making more money off your customers is grounds for a lawsuit...?

 

[G-Fight]

I'm not a lawyer, and I dislike how easily companies can be sued in today's world, but I tend to believe that falsely advertising a product with the direct result of making more money off your customers is grounds for a lawsuit...?

As much as I get frustrated about the event and the effort it takes for low rewards (8 LS in box 32, srsly Inno?), you would never win such a case. You can try as much as possible to determine the chance of succes with the rule of the large numbers, it's not a valid enough proof and Inno's lawyers would disprove your points in a minute.

 

[DeletedUser4945]

When you add in the fact that sending wrong or reduced # of troops doesn't necessarily affect your chance to win the round, yes, the percentages and troop advantages are a sham.

 

[DeletedUser34939]

Wrong troops does effect the chances of success and so does reduced troops.

 

[DeletedUser31931]

As much as I get frustrated about the event and the effort it takes for low rewards (8 LS in box 32, srsly Inno?), you would never win such a case. You can try as much as possible to determine the chance of succes with the rule of the large numbers, it's not a valid enough proof and Inno's lawyers would disprove your points in a minute.

Haha I am not suggesting that I will actually sue them.

And that's not at all how a lawsuit would play out. During discovery, Inno would be forced to show the game coding of the event, which would definitively prove that they are lying about the real percentages.

Wrong troops does effect the chances of success and so does reduced troops.

Right, and I did not always reach the maximum unit bonus. The number I recorded was the total chance of success that I supposedly have, after the game factors in what units I sent.

 

[DeletedUser31852]

I’ve tried running the maths on this, simplifying this into supposing you are flipping a coin with probability 0.65 that you get heads.
The probability that after 300 trirs you obtain 152 heads (the result you got) is less than 1.5 * 10^-7
Or 0.000000011 approximatively

(The exact formula is 300 choose 152 times 0.65^152 times 0.35^148 - used wolfram alpha as I don’t have my computer with me on vacation)

It’s basically never going to happen - someone lawyer up and sue inno because if this data is true there is absolutely no way they aren’t hiding something in algorithms that should be rather quite simple.

Thanks for going to the effort of collecting this data ^_^ got me convinced that inno is cheating us. Statistically this can’t happen

 

[DeletedUser55806]

As much as I get frustrated about the event and the effort it takes for low rewards (8 LS in box 32, srsly Inno?), you would never win such a case. You can try as much as possible to determine the chance of succes with the rule of the large numbers, it's not a valid enough proof and Inno's lawyers would disprove your points in a minute.

i have pretty much given up and im on box 12

 

[DeletedUser31852]

Random fact: just captured 7 spirits in 8 tries on box 20...! So probably got lucky, or they panicked and changed it?

 

[DeletedUser31931]

Wrong troops does effect the chances of success and so does reduced troops.

Right, and I did not always reach the maximum unit bonus. The number I recorded was the total chance of success that I supposedly have, after the

Random fact: just captured 7 spirits in 8 tries on box 20...! So probably got lucky, or they panicked and changed it?

lol I don't think they changed it. But yeah, that's variance for ya. You will always have good streaks and bad streaks over limited numbers of trials. That was my point with waiting until I had attempted 298 missions before publishing this. As the number of trials increases, the variance from the average should generally decrease.

 

[DeletedUser36697]

randomer fact..I have captured 2 sprite in 7 tries on box 20...........looks like i got your fails as well ;{)
got till the end, of contest, to finish 20 and no more tries beyond.

didnt spend a cent, well $6.99Cdn, for the time reduction 25%

so loads of negative-press, question of ethics and insulting prizes Can such ineptness be accidental????????????????????????

 

[Raydium88]

Add to that: achieving the ultimate reward of +50% BP for 2 weeks, is undeniably impossible (in the time provided).

Extorting money off players with false premises. Slow claps*

 

[DeletedUser31931]

so loads of negative-press, question of ethics and insulting prizes Can such ineptness be accidental????????????????????????

Well that's pretty much my question. Throughout Grepo-history, inno has done a very good job of removing bugs, much better than other games I've played. These bugs are a way of life in any complex software; it's just a matter of how quickly and consistently they are fixed.

But can an error like this in something that seems so simple to program really be accidental??

 

[Fluvisol]

But can an error like this in something that seems so simple to program really be accidental??

I mean the last event had a community buff to reduce spell costs by 25% according to the description
It actually only reduced them by 10% and you could only cast them if you had the full amount of favour for them (ex: you needed 300 favour to cast rage but it would only take away 270)
I was told this was a mistake in the description and it would be fixed, and the usual thanks for reporting a bug for the favour cost, but neither were fixed before the buff ran out as far as I could tell

That clearly wouldn't have been ill intent as there's nothing to gain for Inno and would be seemingly as easy to fix, but they didn't, maybe it's more complicated than we think
Just putting it out there

Side note, I personally think every unique reward in an event should be obtainable without gold
That way non golders just have to put more thought in when to use buffs
Where as now someone can (technically, I know it's near impossible) have 50% increased bp for 2 weeks (4 if doubled) which is huge while at least 90% of players can never have access to that kind of buff, in that scenario golders would maybe have 2 of those buffs and everyone else one, which means if you use them at the right time they can be more worth than the 2 combined

 

[Raydium88]

Where as now someone can (technically, I know it's near impossible) have 50% increased bp for 2 weeks (4 if doubled) which is huge while at least 90% of players can never have access to that kind of buff, in that scenario golders would maybe have 2 of those buffs and everyone else one, which means if you use them at the right time they can be more worth than the 2 combined

Difference is, it is impossible. And I am, admittedly, a heavy gold user. I am #1 in the event of the world I am playing, and there is no way, anyone is getting it. I can maybe squeeze it to around box 35 with some strong luck. But otherwise, box 40 is not feasible.

 

[DeletedUser55894]

Hy my name is Tony i am part of the german Inner Council. I registered here because i see this thread and want to say some Words if allowed^^

@Fluvisol
in Germany inno tells us that no one of the big buffs from Pandorra (Box 10, 20, 30 or 40) can be doubled with Democrit

@Raydium88

I think you are not right. I spend 12k gold right now and a other player on my world round about 40k

and he is Box 39 right now. But i think we both will reach and close Box 40, but with an huge huge time effort and maximizing event tactic^^
I heard that on German World DIMALE on Player is two boxes above me so he should be at 40 right now.

but the most important

@Tusc2010

thanks a lot for that work and time that you spend, i agree with you. On Germany forum the feedbacks are quite similar to your feedback^^

Sadly i startet to late to log my trys, but from Box 29 here are the Values from me

0 is miss and 1 a Ghost

As you see box 34 was a real PAIN, my fist hurts after bashing it on the table after each miss^^

on that Area normaly 16 to 19 Trys would be like normal and below box 29 it was not better.

i remember Box NINE i had with a Chance of 83% six misses in a row.

 

[DeletedUser31931]

@Fluvisol
in Germany inno tells us that no one of the big buffs from Pandorra (Box 10, 20, 30 or 40) can be doubled with Democrit

This is very good to know. Why the information flow to us is so bad is beyond me. We have around double the players of Germany (or even more, I don't know the exact current numbers) and yet so often we have to find our information from forums like this. Hell, even the us forum had the Pandora's event posted 4 DAYS before it was posted here. But that's another issue.

@Raydium88

I think you are not right.

i think we both will reach and close Box 40, but with an huge huge time effort and maximizing event tactic^^

You are correct. I have also spent gold, and a ton of time. I will certainly get box 40, hopefully 42 or 43. The issue I have is not that box 40 is unattainable, but that it has been far more expensive than Inno claimed it would be. This is not just false advertising or a misleading phrasing, this is blatant thievery.

@Tusc2010

thanks a lot for that work and time that you spend, i agree with you. On Germany forum the feedbacks are quite similar to your feedback^^

...

As you see box 34 was a real PAIN, my fist hurts after bashing it on the table after each miss^^

on that Area normaly 16 to 19 Trys would be like normal and below box 29 it was not better.

i remember Box NINE i had with a Chance of 83% six misses in a row.

This is the real issue. If I were just getting absurdly unlucky (though as I mathmatically explain in the other Pandora's thread, it is statistically impossible for these ratios to have been correct using my data alone), it would be one thing. However, that isn't the case. Everyone in the game is getting "unlucky", which unfortunately means that Inno has been lying to us.

The fact that both @Baudin Toolan and @Richard read this thread and didn't respond is not a very good sign.