Proof that Pandora's Box is a Lie

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DeletedUser55894

Guest
@Tusc2010 i know that the following is a little bit of paranoia^^ but. I was Rank one until Box 34 and Rank two spendet lots of gold and he was Box 32. At this time i get one miss after each other and at the same time Rank 2 could close 2 boxes with only 3 or 4 misses. Then his luck continued and he spend lot of money in it, and was than about one box and 2500 points above me. Then he started to get unlucky and i had a very good box. And since then we get our ghosts nearly at the same time and if he sleep i get just only misses, and if i sleep he gets only misses. Just like program want us near together, that we both spend more money.

But No this would not happen from me^^
 

DeletedUser31852

Guest
Thanks a lot for coming over from the German forums for telling us this, much appreciated.

As for it being annoying that German forums get more attention from devs it may be unfortunate but isn’t really surprising given they’re German.

And for all the complaints, it’s a pretty interesting event and inno tried listening to us (the 10% gold bonus for purchase makes the think we won’t be seeing 100% gold bonus for purchase ever again, or unlimited myth tokens - which to be honest is probably a good thing). So yes there are things to be improved, but the balance has to swing in extremes before they can stabilize.

(Feel like forums are much more full of complaining, threats to boycot etc, which probably will discourage them from reading through it - inno has enough games that they would and will probably just move on to other games than give grepolis a serious major update anyways, their milking it while it lasts).
 

DeletedUser55894

Guest
Idontnow said:
Thanks a lot for coming over from the German forums for telling us this, much appreciated.

As for it being annoying that German forums get more attention from devs it may be unfortunate but isn’t really surprising given they’re German.

And for all the complaints, it’s a pretty interesting event and inno tried listening to us (the 10% gold bonus for purchase makes the think we won’t be seeing 100% gold bonus for purchase ever again, or unlimited myth tokens - which to be honest is probably a good thing). So yes there are things to be improved, but the balance has to swing in extremes before they can stabilize.

(Feel like forums are much more full of complaining, threats to boycot etc, which probably will discourage them from reading through it - inno has enough games that they would and will probably just move on to other games than give grepolis a serious major update anyways, their milking it while it lasts).
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i don´t think that dev look more on german forum because most of them don´t speak german^^, but our CMs did here a good job most of the time (please read that MOST of the time^^)

@Tusc2010
if i may ask. how much gold did you spent and what box are you?
 
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DeletedUser31931

Guest
Idontnow said:
And for all the complaints, it’s a pretty interesting event and inno tried listening to us (the 10% gold bonus for purchase makes the think we won’t be seeing 100% gold bonus for purchase ever again, or unlimited myth tokens - which to be honest is probably a good thing). So yes there are things to be improved, but the balance has to swing in extremes before they can stabilize.

(Feel like forums are much more full of complaining, threats to boycot etc, which probably will discourage them from reading through it - inno has enough games that they would and will probably just move on to other games than give grepolis a serious major update anyways, their milking it while it lasts).
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My complaint isn't with the event idea, it is that all evidence indicated that Inno is intentionally misleading us players through blatant dishonesty about the true chances of success. This is criminal action. There is no other way to say it, if the percentages are as different as they appear to be, it is causing players like myself to spend far more money than we intended to at the start of this event, and more than I would have spent if I knew the real percentages of success were this low.

My complaint with this event isn't the concept or the rewards, it is that I am being taken advantage of by the same people I have financially supported for almost a decade.
 

DeletedUser31852

Guest
And I agree with you on that tusc, just trying to remind that there are also positive things - for those that don’t just want to complain and go to bed angry and annoyed about this game. I come here for fun and relaxing after work personally ^_^

In no way see this as trying to diminish your claims regarding the percentages, I completely agree with you on it and I can’t understand why they would go out of their way to cheat percentages...!

Personally i’ve spent maybe 2-3k gold to open boxes when I closed them when I could still be online, am comfortably 30th in the tanking at box 24. Hopefully will get 30 but not hoping for much more - will not buy troops but should have enough
 

G-Fight

Chiliarch
Their percentages are nearly half as they claim it to be I think, I am currently at box 29 with a supposedly percentage of 48, but I don't even have a succes rate of 25% percent...
 

DeletedUser31931

Guest
Idontnow said:
And I agree with you on that tusc, just trying to remind that there are also positive things - for those that don’t just want to complain and go to bed angry and annoyed about this game. I come here for fun and relaxing after work personally ^_^
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Oh on that I agree completely. :) I do appreciate the effort that inno has shown recently to improve the game and take player's opinions into consideration. I just share the same confusion here as to why Inno would lie to us about these percentages when it drives so many away from the event and game entirely, for so little gain.
 

DeletedUser4945

Guest
The good news is that troops seem sufficient at the later levels, so if you have to grind out 20+ missions to close a box you don't have to buy troops to do it. ;-)
 

Baudin Toolan

Grepolis Team
When I posed the question about the stated success percentages and such that were brought up here and in our other event feedback thread the answer I got was that the stated percentages were correct. Gathering the info from a couple hundred attempts from a couple of players doesn't accurately reflect the statistics. You'd need closer to 1000 attempts among most of a server to get a clearer picture.

As for the difficulty of reaching box 40 the answer there is that it is doable with high activity and using the best troop selection on every attempt for the whole event.
 

DeletedUser55894

Guest
Baudin Toolan said:
When I posed the question about the stated success percentages and such that were brought up here and in our other event feedback thread the answer I got was that the stated percentages were correct. Gathering the info from a couple hundred attempts from a couple of players doesn't accurately reflect the statistics. You'd need closer to 1000 attempts among most of a server to get a clearer picture.

As for the difficulty of reaching box 40 the answer there is that it is doable with high activity and using the best troop selection on every attempt for the whole event.
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Sorry Baudin, near of 1000 Attempts? This isn´t much of a problem^^

because @Tusc2010 has already 300 (ok 299^^) Attempts and i am by over 250, i got the Numbers of the rank one player on my world which has over 250, so us three alone are more then 800 attempts (by the way ALL three player confirm the same values of success), and the last 200 attempts can easily be taken from german feedback discussion, because i thought of that answer with more than 1k attempts and i bet some player to log their attempts to. And the values from them are only slightly better than from tusca me and perseus. in the sum that would be more than that 1k that you want^^
 
Raydium88

Raydium88

Strategos
AnWePe said:
@Raydium88

I think you are not right. I spend 12k gold right now and a other player on my world round about 40k
Z8FKEzInBmNHeDAD-Bereich.png


and he is Box 39 right now. But i think we both will reach and close Box 40, but with an huge huge time effort and maximizing event tactic^^
I heard that on German World DIMALE on Player is two boxes above me so he should be at 40 right now.
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@AnWePe I must acknowledge when I am wrong. Currently on box 38 myself after a ton of sleepless nights. For which, much respect to anyone who puts up with the commitment required to achieve this.
 

DeletedUser31931

Guest
Baudin Toolan said:
When I posed the question about the stated success percentages and such that were brought up here and in our other event feedback thread the answer I got was that the stated percentages were correct. Gathering the info from a couple hundred attempts from a couple of players doesn't accurately reflect the statistics. You'd need closer to 1000 attempts among most of a server to get a clearer picture.
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First, let me be clear in saying that I am not accusing you of any dishonesty. Do I think we would be better off if you were able to be more active, responding quicker to questions, more open about your communication with inno? Sure. But I also know that you have become busier in real life than you were ten years ago, so I don't blame you for this. You do your job, perhaps not as actively as even you yourself would like, but well enough to keep us content. :)

What I am calling a blatant lie is the answer you were supposedly given. Even if we pretend that everyone else is not having the same issue and corroborating the same results that I have, my data alone is enough to sufficiently prove that the percentages do not check out. Please, run a simple hypothesis test on this.
Trials: 298
Expected count: .65007 * 298 = 193.721
Observed count: 151
Variance: Normal/Bell curve
unknown.png

http://onlinestatbook.com/2/calculators/normal_dist.html

As you can see, the probability that the percentages are what Inno claims they are literally shows as zero. That means the probability of them being honest with us here is <0.0000

Then you add in the fact that other people are getting similar data to me (or even worse!) and Inno's cover-up is downright humorous. This is no way to run a company.
 

DeletedUser31931

Guest
What makes this even worse to me is not that they are scamming us out of money and have crossed the line from shady to what is literally and undeniably criminal action, classified as false advertising in the US and Irreführungsrichtlinie in Germany...yes; I've done some research the past couple days.
Irreführungsrichtlinie in German law: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irref%C3%BChrende_Werbung

It's not that their cover-up is beyond absurd, showing no effort whatsoever to actually understand the math behind how ridiculous their claim is.

The worst part, for me, is that Inno has all the data they could possibly need right at their fingertips. Are you really telling me they do not have the ability to quickly and easily fetch their own data from their own servers? If they want this magical number of 1000, then they can go look at player's histories. Hell, they can export every single attempt of this entire event into an excel spreadsheet like mine if it makes them happy.

I don't know any other way to say it...
THIS
IS
ABSURD​
 

DeletedUser31852

Guest
Yes, the argument of not having enough data is absurd. Even on “just 300” attempts, the probability of what tusc recorded happening is like if the CERN claimed finding the Higgs bosom after several hundred photographs, or simply like flipping a coin 23 times in a row and always getting tails but still saying that the coin isn’t tricked... it just doesn’t work that way. 10^-7 of probability of stuff happening just never happens. Try flipping a coin 23 times and always getting the same (heads or tails it doesn’t matter). It’s the same probability of tusc getting what he got.

5 times, sure you got lucky; 10 times you should take part in the lottery; 20 times you know the coin isn’t balanced well and it’s cheated. It just doesn’t happen, at most it would happen one time in all of history - and that would be considering us lucky.
 

DeletedUser31931

Guest
Idontnow said:
Yes, the argument of not having enough data is absurd. Even on “just 300” attempts, the probability of what tusc recorded happening is like if the CERN claimed finding the Higgs bosom after several hundred photographs, or simply like flipping a coin 23 times in a row and always getting tails but still saying that the coin isn’t tricked... it just doesn’t work that way. 10^-7 of probability of stuff happening just never happens. Try flipping a coin 23 times and always getting the same (heads or tails it doesn’t matter). It’s the same probability of tusc getting what he got.

5 times, sure you got lucky; 10 times you should take part in the lottery; 20 times you know the coin isn’t balanced well and it’s cheated. It just doesn’t happen, at most it would happen one time in all of history - and that would be considering us lucky.
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Exactly!

But now we think, okay....Tusc just flipped a coin 23 freaking times and got tails each time. Hmm, maybe he just got the same odds of winning the lottery twice in a row. Let's try giving the coin to LITERALLY EVERYONE ELSE and see if they also flip tails. Oh, yes, it seems they do.

This is the exact definition of Irreführungsrichtlinie for our German friends at Inno.
 

DeletedUser41656

Guest
I, on the other hand, have captured 8 ghosts in a row, with 60% of chance. The event aint far to everyone.
 

DeletedUser31931

Guest
Arzaac said:
I, on the other hand, have captured 8 ghosts in a row, with 60% of chance. The event aint far to everyone.
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That's the problem with variability. I don't mean any offense, but what you posted is simply irrelevant because it is such a small sample size. For just 8 ghosts in a row with 60% chance, you have an almost 2% chance of succeeding in all of them. Given the number of boxes we open during this event, you're bound to have the occasional good run like this.

That's why I waited to post my data until the evidence is irrefutable, with a sample size of over 37 times yours. :)
 
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