I am making a top 12.
Please bear in mind I can not make a detailed study for each alliance, so help to add more light from those who have more knowledge is welcomed.
I am basing my evaluation on Grepostats data since March 2( the last date of peace before major conflicts started).
A period of 10+ days was needed before tempting to make some evaluation.
1. No Brakes group( No Speed Limit included).
It has clearly made a good step forward,with a net growth of some 350 + cities and 4,700,000+ point growth.
Bp total since March 2( reference date) is some 3,675,000+,from whom over 2 million are abp and 1,515,000 dbp.
The major wars against Musket Bees has gone in it's favor with some 90 victories for less then 35 losses.
However, too early to reach definite conclusions.
Some inactivity is slowing them down and a few cities are lost to some rim alliances.
Swim.
2.The Musketeers group ( The Wombles included).
They have lost the first spot,and the wars against No Brakes has yielded a net loss of some 60 cities+ several players who went to No Brakes.
They have gained some 2,660,000 points, but net gain in cities is just 100( 99).
The overall bp growth is some 3,030,000,the lions share is dbp( roughly 1,9 million) though,abp being some 1,240,000( 60% of No Brakes group).
On paper equal bp per player with No Brakes.
But they have to overcome the psychological effect of the unfavourable course of the major wars( even toward Epidemic the score is just equal) in order to regain the previous steam, since relatively speaking they are slipping behind their main competitor.
Nor have they safe backs, with just south/ southeast being green,and Lonely Wolves have retaken some cities too and Sindar not friendly too.
In theory the best situation for ferocious fighters but in practice .....
I will put a Swim for now,but next 10 days will be important for them not to downgrade in just float.
3. Killa Biiz group( Golden Honey Group included).
Net growth in points is satisfactory, some 3,82 million. And net growth in cities is 240.
Bp though lags much behind, just 1,280,000,with the wing especially being a sim city( a disastrous 260 k overall,far less then Wombles with 750 k,let alone NSL with almost 1,3 million bp) which shows siming strength, but more is needed to show they are a fighting group too and not just wanna be wasps,lol
It is to be noted that vast majority of their bp is abp( some 1 million), with dbp just 280 k( overall).
Since No Brakes has not attacked them and Bloody Axe has just defended this dbp comes from quests since they have no pacts,lol
Black Ship is too close( East 55),so this stand off and the successful defense of No Brakes is preventing a more satisfactory bp growth.
It is not bad for the main,but far from satisfactory for a group who pretends to be in the game just to fight. ( main alliance has 1,020,000 bp.Compare it with Muskets 2,230,000 or NB with 2,400,000l).
Swim.
4. Written in Blood group.
Huge leap forward in point growth compared with the reference data(2,850,000 points) and 324 cities( note, their wing was created on March 3 with local recruits, this has to be kept in mind).
However,when it comes to bp one can hardly say good job with just 735 k bp overall....
The wing bp is just negligible ( Martinus,you spartnoob,move your a$$).
They broke the previous understanding with Epidemic and entered the franko Russian group, lol
Some 15 takes from Epi but way more fighting strength required to be a serious competitive alliance on it's own.
Sim city won't help in rough waters.
Strategic location is safe,so it is a Swim.
5. Epidemic.
This guys have a net point growth of some 1,100,000 points and 102 cities.
They bravely entered the war against the Entente Cordiale ( proper name since on paper poop said no pacts,lol) regardless of their dangerous location and this is reflected in the huge( for their size) bp growth of 1,150,000.
They are sandwiched between Muskets, Killa Biiz and Ruth less alliance, and the first major test ( they were heavily attacked by all members of the Entente( Killa biiz simply by coincidence of course ,lol) showed their power of resistance.
Ratio is 35-55 about takeovers ( -20) but bearing in mind the odds it is acceptable.
And just 1-2 small players switched sides ( compare it with Muskets).
No doubt they don't lack slots,and by investing them wisely they can create a base for the long haul.
They do not have an enemy in 35.
I would like to see them pass under another test before giving them a Swim,so for now Float.
6. Black Ship.
Lovely siming power ( 1,660,000 points and an extra 144 cities) but bp is low for their size,just 350k.
They have a good rim location, and it was an easy walk so far,but being close to Killa Biiz means they will sooner or later have to show they have the proper material to be a serious competitor.
I will give them a Swim for now based on location, but would like to see them pass a major test before being a definite Swim.
7. Lonely Wolves.
More then doubled the point growth ( 1,450,000 points and 212 extra cities since March 2) and jumped from 12 to 8 in ranking.
Guess they were crystallising their hold on 34 before venturing against Muskets ( they did take a few cities off them lately) to explain the overall low 280 k bp.
It is a Swim due to location.
8 Sindar group.
They have been busy consolidating their position in 43 with a careful diplomacy.
Steady growth ( 1,500,000 points and 150 cities as a group) but 300 k bp shows they still are not up to par with what numbers suggest.
They will have to pass a major test to deserve a full Swim,though location gives them a Swim for now.
9. The Vanguard.
Too far from me to have a proper idea.
Point growth is a million and 142 extra cities but bo account is quite low( just 183 k since March 2).
I will give them a Float for now due to location but not a Swim before a major test.
It closes here since 3 of the top 12 are wings and included in the evaluation of their sister alliances.
General comments.
Since major wars started one can see the easier crystallising of rim alliances who dominate a given ocean.
Shortly they may enter the field and will be seen of what mettle they are.
As for the major contenders:
One clearly identifies that the initial exchanges have gone in favor of No Brakes group with a net gain of +50 in direct takeovers, and half the losses being inactives and some being simply outlying cities.
They have shown their defensive power both in their help for Epidemic ( few cities listed in the shared forum by Epi were lost) as well( especially) in their defense in the blind of over 60 cities belonging to banned players.( just five losses).
However, it is too early to reach conclusions, and the Entente does have the numbers and talent ( and ofc Dumbspace too,lol).
Note- the author is a leader in No Brakes group, so prone to biased evaluation.
Thank you for your time.