1. Adeptus - Swim - Adeptus are an interesting alliance purely because their core is in O44, but with members in O54 and O55 as well. These outside members will probably have a hard time, but those in the alliance core could potentially be a solid group. I can't see them crashing and burning immediately that's for sure.
2. The Moral Horde - Sink - Showed early signs of being an MRA and aren't showing much better signs now. They have some good players at the top, but they'll most likely jump ship within a couple of days after BP ends for a better alliance. Admittedly they are positioned well, but there's very little else going for them right now unless they cut the fat and shape up.
3. Warpath - Swim - I like the looks of these guys. Some stragglers at the bottom of the pile, but they're mostly growing well, they're well positioned along the O45 side of the 45/55 border and have a couple of names there I recognise. They'll be either battling it out with Atomic, have the better Atomic members merge into them or (god forbid) they will pact. Definitely an alliance to keep an eye on.
4. Atomic - Swim - Same as the above although they've been somewhat lucky with their position. Their island is, in my opinion, in O55, but it is apparently in O45 and so they share an ocean with Warpath. They're also growing well and have a strong core on that O45/55 border. These guys are also an alliance to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.
5. Mysterious - Float - Some people will be asking why and so I will tell you. Mysterious don't really have many threats in their immediate vicinity. Sure, they're mostly dispersed in O55, but they're a few islands over from Atomic and Warpath, The Moral Horde isn't a threat in my eyes and there's bugger all else around. A few Adeptus members, some T.G.D members and...that's about it. They might not be a massive alliance in this world, but due to the lack of immediate threats they should be around to stay for a little while.
6. True Angels of Grepolis - Sink - No offence meant to TAG but, while there are good players there, I'm simply not fond of their leadership (or at least the one guy who badgered that guy on another topic, which was just downright rude). With Adeptus in their oceans who look good value right now, TAG are going to struggle to make a mark unless they can write off Adeptus immediately. If they can do it then fair play to them. If not...I told you so.
7. 300 Spartans - Swim - These guys are, in my opinion, very similar to Mysterious. Very little going on in their ocean besides straggling Adeptus members, Chaos members and a few other members of other alliances here and there. There are two names I recognise from them (although that doesn't mean much), and their growth is steady so they'll be around for a while. Whether they'll do anything notable in the early days remains to be seen.
8. BLACK FLAG - Sink - YAR! Another alliance in O45 with an awesome name! I quite like the look of these guys if I'm honest with you, and I do feel bad for saying they'll sink. However, when you look at Atomic and Warpath you begin to understand a little as to why. BF may well struggle against those two alliances, although they could potentially take advantage of the two being there if Atomic and Warpath start to scrap. I can BF sinking unless that happens, but I certainly don't want them to! KEEP THAT FLAG HELD HIGH LADS!
9. SUPERSTAINS - Float - Not sure what to say about SS. On one hand, what caused the stain? On the other hand, where is the stain? They have some members in O44 and some in O55. Grepointel isn't showing their full location yet for some reason, but baring in mind the alliances in those two oceans, I'd say they're pretty safe for the time being.
10. Chaos - Sink - Chaos by name, chaos by nature? I hope so. 300 Spartans are the only other remotely good looking alliance in O54 at this time, so there is very little competition there, but Spartans are a lot tighter and look a lot healthier. If push comes to shove I can't see Chaos putting up much of a fight. I'd be happy to be proved wrong though.
11. Contract Killers - Swim - The more dominant alliance in O55, these guys are kind of in the lower half, away from the action occurring on the O45/55 border. They're quite spread out across O55 so I can't see them being massively destructive outright, but there is potential there due to them being in a fairly quiet looking ocean.
12. Royals - Float - Pretty certain they're on the O55/65 border, so they're pretty much safe from anything really. Not much to say about them at this stage although they're growing reasonably I guess. Will be worth keeping an eye on them as time goes by just to see what they do really.
Disclaimer: This is all strictly my opinion based off of the stats I could find. If anyone has taken offence to this then my sincerest apologies, if you look in my fridge you will find a dozen cans of 'Man the F up'. Please feel free to take one...or three.