This is my top 12 from the little I know of alliances. Note -
what I say here will be based purely on facts, and a little bit of what I already know
1) The Gang - Float
The Gang were the first alliance to reach the 120 alliance cap, which was (I believe) in the first couple of hours of the world opening. They currently lead with points, and have an OK average points. Although this means little before BP has ended, they do lead with a 10,000 difference to Number 2 in ABP, and lead in all around BP by just over 12,000. I'm saying they will float for now, because I want to see the outcome of their first war, although I've heard that one of their members has attacked with swords and archers, which isn't a good start. Also, they are in the overpopulated South East region, so wars will happen whether they like it or not.
2) The Usual Suspects - Swim
These guys have a slightly higher average points than The Gang and 14 less players. I can't say I know too much about them, except for that they are one of the few larger alliances in o45. They are contested with The Hammer who don't look as though they are great shakes, so it could be an easy run for them
3) Fruit Loop Troop - Swim
A well known and respectable group of players here. Their cities are tight together around the core of the world. Because they are lead by Baudin, people will want to have the respect of rimming them, so they need to be up for many wars. But I think they will swim
4) Coming Soon - Swim
If my intel is correct, this alliance has many members from the alliance "Knights who say NI" on Nysa, and I think one or two EN players? So based on what I know of the players who are there, I say these guys will swim, despite being only 7th in ABP and TBP.
5) TZ-HC Brothers - Sink
My first sink
I don't know the players in this alliance, and so because of this and that they have a healthy amount of strong alliances around them, I call that they will sink, as their average points isn't great at all, although I would like to see an unknown alliance like this pull something out of the bag and surprise me!
6) Crimson Rebels - Sink
Low average points, and 115 members. It's not a great start. But 4th in ABP, and 5th in TBP, maybe these guys can surprise me as well. They are a tightly knit group by the looks of things, but this alone will not bring them success, with alliances like the Danish Division, Fruit Loop Troop and Inferno in close proximity.
7) The Hammer - Sink
Even lower average points but still higher members, I believe these guys will sink. 11th in both ABP and TBP, and located in a sandwich between The Usual Suspects and The Gang, I don't think they will last too long.
8) Immortal Empire - Sink
With less than impressive statistics and a very large difference in points (lowest member on 900 highest on 6000) the "immortal" empire will sink. They are the jam in the sandwich between Inferno and Fruit Loop Troop, 16th in ABP, yes they will sink like an anchor.
9) Danish Division - Swim
Okay so these guys have really impressed me so far. They have shown to be a serious group of players, who know what they are doing. Only 82 members, 2.4k average points (which is up there with the best), and 2nd in ABP, these will be a force to be reckoned with!
10) Inferno - Float
I'm not sure what to think of them. Showed promise in the early game, with a tightly knit group, but are now on the decline. 15th in ABP, which is not too impressive, 105 members, I have a feeling these might sink. But because they have easy pickings in the Immortal Empire, I think they will float for now.
11) United Nations - Sink
I'm not sure what it is about these guys, I just can't see them lasting in the long run with Coming Soon to their East and Danish Division to the West. 22nd in ABP, I think these will sink soon.
12) Prisoners - Float
Everyone wrote this guys off a long time ago, but I think they will do OK for now. 8th in ABP, 91 members, a normal average points, not really much competition in their area of 55, I see only one reason as to why they will not swim. That reason is that 55 will be contested over, and when someone manages to dominate the ocean, these guys will be cannon fodder if they don't have a good diplomat.
I have probably got some wrong, and the stats are ever changing so don't bite my head off for that
but that is my top 12. I want constructive criticism, so if you decide to comment, don't just say "awful top 12" because I said your alliance will sink.