Will do a top 5 going over the best case, the worst case, and what will probably happen.
1) JFL- Situated in O54 and O55. They have probably the best core of anyone in the world right now with lots of directions to grow in. Their main opponents initially look like they'll be Koany2012, Survivors, and This Is Fine with some Black Hand mixed in there. This should make for an interesting start if nothing else. They're growing at the fastest rate in the world by a county mile and will cross a 10k average today. You could say that they're top heavy, but if you look at the team, there's a strong case for their top half of players having over 12k points and 5 cities each by the time BP officially ends. Which is an advantage that no other team is going to be able to boast.
Best Case: They roll Koany2012 with their opening numbers advantage, securing an early win in the world.
Worst Case: They fail to capitalize on their numbers advantage and start bleeding cities to Koany2012, they'll reach a point of being unrimmable and enter into a highly competitive war from this point onwards. Typically this team doesn't deal with with sustained pressure and internal issues arise, leading to their downfall.
What Will Probably Happen: All signs indicate that JFL intends to fight Koany2012 early (and vice versa). It'll be a good fight, especially in the first week or two. I think Koany2012 overall has the better and more cohesive roster. But I think that JFL's size/city differential, gold use, and overall numbers comes into play and the core group will be able to gold back support, LS nukes for breaks, etc more effectively than Koany. By the time everyone is off of BP, you could realistically see JFL sitting at a 100ish city gap in their favor. All in all, I think that JFL has everything that it needs to win this fight.
2) Black Hand- Situated on the O44/O54 border. Its pretty much a carbon copy of Twerking Llamas from En143 with a few additions such as perseus, Joe, valk, etc. JFL already has a spy in this alliance. They at least have some direction to expand in this time, but out of the groups I'm listing, I think overall they'd place near the bottom.
Best Case: They swing a pact with Koany2012 and get some breathing room to expand into O44.
Worst Case: Koany2012 and JFL warm up on Black Hand before going after each other and Black Hand is done before September.
What Will Probably Happen: Koany2012 and JFL warm up on Black Hand before going after each other and Black Hand is done before September.
3) Survivors- Spread all over O55 and some of O54. They appear to be a pick up alliance mainly. They primarily share an ocean with JFL.
Best Case: JFL gets bogged down with Koany2012 and the French get bogged down else where, they manage to beat the other local teams in their ocean and maybe carve out a role as a supporting cast member in WW.
Worst Case: JFL feasts on them for easy cities.
What Will Probably Happen: JFL feasts on them for easy cities.
4) F Society- The French, been a long time since we've seen them as a full on premade in an EN server. Maybe they've improved since the last go around. Maybe not. They're primarily in O44 and will get a crack at Black Hand and some of Survivors for their opening fights. Overall they might have one of the better positions in the world just by virtue of not being trapped in the middle of Koany2012 and JFL.
Best Case: They get to feast in O45 and O44 while Koany vs JFL drags on before making their move to win the world.
Worst Case: Koany or JFL emerges as the victor relatively early on and turn to F Society.
What Will Probably Happen: F Society will clean up their opening slate with little to no issues. They will then have to make a choice early between either jumping in and picking a side in Koany vs JFL or avoiding it and going south in O45.
5) Koany2012- Honestly, this is the one most of you probably skipped to after reading the JFL portion. They have the second highest average in the world and pretty strong growth along with what I feel is the strongest roster. They're a bit out of position in O54 but appear to be trying to move to link up with This Is Fine up in north O54 in order to correct this. We previewed Koany vs JFL in the JFL section so we're gonna skip the Best/Worst/Probably scenario here and just look at what they could do to gain an edge.
Strategy: I think its safe to say that the knock Charlie out early strategy isn't viable here. By the time BP ends, the guy could very well have 10-12 cities ready to go, additionally, Koany probably won't have the support needed to win an early battle. At least not on a consistent basis. This means that by default, they probably gotta go with the Nori strategy, which is build their own critical mass and make the right diplomatic and recruiting moves to put them over the top. Honestly, I think that they're skilled enough to last to that critical mass point. Assuming that they can accept some set backs and early losses. Which really leaves the main question, what diplomatic moves are there?
Black Hand: This relies on Black Hand being smart. But Koany could offer to just grab the best of Black Hand from the get go such as Perseus, Hang, Dods, Snakez, etc. This helps to close up some of the city and player differential. It'd be a move in the right direction, but probably not enough on its own.
F Society: This would be a massive hail mary, but if they went ahead and merged, they'd have an open path into O44 virtually unopposed and could rapidly explode onto the map. They'd also be able to match JFL in terms of cities and rough average and both break some sieges while taking cities as well.
