Here is my top 12, let me know how you guys like it. Remember these are mainly just my opinions
1)
Venominium- Float. Has the highest average points, and leads in every bp category. Of the 6 players that have multiple cities so far, 5 of them are in Venominium. There core splits Kingdom of Heaven into two, so those might be some potential targets for them. Venominium has a relatively strong core, with some players closer to RUSE and TW-Shadows than Venominium though. Think they should do well.
2)
Legion XIII- Sink. They are spread out all over the place, mainly in Ocean 54. Do not really see any islands that they have a strong presence on, and they have a low average points. They are 3rd in abp and 4th in total bp, but pretty unimpressive since they trail Venominium by a large margin despite having about the same number of players. I see them having issues, whether it be internally or being swallowed up by another alliance. There core is split up by the core of S.P.Q.R Empire, they have some vulnerable cities next to Epic to the there right, and they are close to TW-Shadows. While there sister alliance plugs up some of the whole's in there core, they have 250 players to lead in total. Would be shocked to see these leader's pull it off.
3)
RUSE- Swim. RUSE had the 2nd highest totals in average points, abp and total bp. Another premade, they also have a pretty strong core. Based in Ocean 55, they have no players that are very far away from the core of the group. I see them eliminating GoDz in the future, which would help strengthen there core and there presence in 55. I just wonder what they will do about there cities that have some Venominium and TW-Shadows guys close by.
4)
Ocean Veterans- Sink. Ocean Veterans has the 3rd highest average points in the top 12, while being 4th in abp and 3rd in total bp. However they have a lot of players stuck in RUSE's core and in Venominium's. This will force them to have to spread support out to these players early, or risk losing several cities early which would be bad for morale. They have a nice cluster of core islands though, but then again they struggled to clear out MRA cities in the area which doesn't speak well for them. I think they will last until another alliance decided to target them, or until they experience some sort of internal problems.
5)
Lightning Shadows- Float. Despite having the 2nd lowest average points and being 15th in abp, I don't see any alliances in there ocean that can be a threat to them. They are very spread out for the most part, and have 5 leaders which could make them possible to be sabotaged. I don't think most of them started on day 1, so maybe there bp stats will improve.
6)
Legion XIV- See Legion XIII.
7)
TW-Shadow- Float, they have the potential to be a nice dark horse alliance. There average points are mediocre, however they are 5th in ABP and 5th in total bp. They have a pretty decent core, and are fortunate enough that there players farther away from the core are not near any other solid alliances for the most part. They have some pretty good players among them, and I have heard from a player in them that they are very well organized.
8)
GoDz- Sink. Based in 55, I expect them to fall apart if RUSE starts hitting them hard. They are 7th in abp, and 2nd in dbp meaning that they have been highly targeted right out of the gate it seems. There average points is just average, nothing really impressive. They have no players in the top 50 in abp, but have the top 2 players in dbp. No players or leaders really stand out to me. There core is ok, but the way they seem to be getting hit it really won't matter much.
9)
Kingdom of Heaven- Sink. It is almost like they have two separate cores. One being in 45 just south of Venominium's core and one in 44 just north of Venominium's core. With Venominium blocking the two cores from connecting, I suspect they will sink and get targeted by Venominium. There average points is one of the worst of the day 1 alliances, and they won't get far with only being 10th in ABP and 10th in total bp. I think them or Legion should be the next MRA's to fall, unless GoDz falls quicker than them both.
10)
Epic- Float. They look like a solid rim alliance based in ocean 64. They are low in bp and in average points, but I think that is more so to them starting late. They are spread out across most of the ocean, but have the benefit of being way bigger than the other alliances in there ocean. I also know of there founders, and think he is a good enough leader to help these guys be dominant in there ocean.
11)
War Wolves- Float. Although being a rim alliance based in Ocean 53, there average points are already comparable to the day 1 MRAs that are still around. They are 6th in abp and 7th in total bp, showing that they could be one of the best rim alliances in this world. They are a little spread out in 53, but again they are another alliance with not many threats in their ocean. They got some good players too, and could be a very solid alliance.
12)
S.P.Q.R. Empire- Float for now. I feel these guys are just another MRA, there average points is nothing special and they just don't impress me very much. However they do have the lowest member count in the top 12, which they deserve some credit for. There core is pretty decent, and they don't have many players who are far away from the core. They also don't have many top alliances near them, asides from Legion XIII and Legion XIV. They are 8th in abp 10th in total bp. Since I don't know much about them, and they don't seem to have very much competition, I say they float for now.
Made this map of the top 12:
http://grepointel.com/map.php?server=en80&ref=l2bie2k7iyjfo44oyhooh90lvmwyknxxy0pacy