Well ok, but I have to say it's a bit tricky at the moment. The message I'm getting from lots of places is a feeling of uncertainty, almost unease in some cases; there seem to be lots of potential decisions to be made that might have quite an impact on the server, and nobody seems all that sure which way they will go. Which makes the server more fascinating at this time than at any point yet, despite looking on the surface pretty clear.
1. Extortion - swim. I think... Clearly in pole position, and taking in some of the top Noobies, but... And the thing is I can't quite put my finger on the "but". Certainly this is where most of the unease comes in, there's something not quite right here, more unhappiness from good players than there should be in the position. I guess the main reason is uncertainty about what the rump of SMYN will do, which explains why they still have 2 alternative locations for WWs, one safe from SMYN, the other safe from TINAD. Maybe they think they either have to be working with SMYN or fighting them? Very, very interesting.
2. This is not a drill - swim. Not as clear-cut a chance as for Extortion, but fairly nicely set. Big issues here are can they get enough resources delivered to beat Extortion, and who will they have to fight - Extortion are desparate to get SMYN into 45 to fight them, but will that happen?
3. Show Me Your Noobies - float. As I've already stated, not sure which way they will go. Will they do what Extortion want, or will the residual unhappiness about the merge thing mean they fight in that direction? Hard to tell, soundings are not clear-cut.
4. Written in Blood - float. I really have no idea what these guys will do; I don't
think they'll support Extortion, but wouldn't rule it out; doesn't look like they'll support TINAD, but they might; most likely, they'll just keep fighting SMYN. I guess they're still waiting on a formal decision from Blood Ties.
5. This is not a hammer - swim. Can't see a scenario where they won't be around until at least the WW phase.
6. The 49 Noobs, 7. The Langolier Ones, 8. Last of the Rim Lords, 9. The Resurrected and 11. Loki - swim. What they (and other smaller alliances) decide to do could influence the outcome. Most likely, they'll go for blocking builds of WWs, but they have enough military force to sway matters if they so wish. Together, they would be kingmakers, but that's not exactly likely.
10. Blood Ties - float. Their chance of wonders is surely gone, what will they do next?
12. Extortionists - swim. The brains behind the alliance, but what happens if it all goes wrong, as it well might?
So a bit of an odd top 12, but then it's all a bit odd right now.